Estimation of electrical energy consumption in Tamil Nadu using univariate time-series analysis

Document Type : Original Article


Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences and Technology, VIT, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India


Demand estimation for power utilization might be a key achievement factor for the occasion of any nation. This might be accomplished if the requirement is estimated precisely. In this paper, Distinctive Univariate methods of forecasting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), ETS, Holt's model, Holt Winter's Additive model, Simple exponential model was used to figure forecast models of the power consumption in Tamil Nadu. The goal is to look at the presentation of these five methodologies and the experimental information utilized in this investigation was data from previous years for the monthly power consumption in Tamil Nadu from 2012 to 2020. The outcomes show that the ARIMA model diminished the MAPE value to 5.9097%, while those of ETS, Holt's Model, Holt winter's technique, SES is 6.3451%, 9.7708%, 7.3439%, and 9.5305% separately. Depend on the outcomes, we conclude that the ARIMA approach beat the ETS and Holt winter's techniques in this situation.


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